TEHRAN - Former US ambassador Ryan Crocker, a veteran diplomat known as “America’s Lawrence of Arabia” for his deep understanding of the Middle East, tells Politico that the Israelis have forgotten their own recent history.

Crocker says what he most fears is Israeli overconfidence following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Crocker says Israel must now seize the chance for a ceasefire and free hostages, but history suggests Israel and its enemies won’t take it.

Crocker spent nearly four decades representing America’s interests in the Arab world, serving as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now retired, Crocker believes the hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah — as well as Iran — are nowhere near to ending. The death of Sinwar, which followed the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah last month, will result mainly in the continuation of a guerrilla war unless the US and Israel work hard toward a cease-fire, Crocker tells the American magazine.

The current situation is all too similar to what happened four decades ago when the Israelis invaded Lebanon, Crocker says. “That invasion and the subsequent Israeli occupation created Hezbollah. This invasion is not going to end it.” He adds: “One thing I’ve learned over years, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, is that the concept of the defeat of an adversary only has meaning in the mind of that adversary. If that adversary feels defeated, he is defeated. If he doesn’t, he’s not.”

I would not see much change on the battlefield in Gaza

On what the death of Yahya Sinwar signifies, he says organizations such as Hamas operate without direction from the leader.  “I would not see much change on the battlefield itself. That said, we know that Hamas has lost its organized capability to a very large degree but that would be the case with or without Sinwar.”

Crocker sees “greater residual capability on the part of Hezbollah.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the “balance of power” in the region has changed in Israel’s favor. However, the former veteran diplomat says, “I would say that’s premature. Clearly Hezbollah fights on. Rockets are still flying across the border, as are drones. They’re decentralized. Clearly Hamas as well as Hezbollah is decentralized. They’re certainly ground down in terms of their capability of delivering anything like a meaningful response. But I foresee a very long insurgency by Hamas.”

Crocker says, “It’s a very different dynamic in the north (Lebanon). In a sense Netanyahu has set the bar very high, in that he’s trying to stop the rocket fire in a definitive way so that 60,000 Israelis can go back home. Though all Hezbollah has to do is keep enough rockets crossing the border to make that difficult.”

“Peace for Galilee”

“I was in Lebanon in 1982 when the Israelis invaded. They called their operation ‘Peace for Galilee.’ And 42 years later Lebanon is further from peace than it was in ‘82 when that invasion kicked off. That invasion and the subsequent Israeli occupation created Hezbollah. This invasion is not going to end it.”

“No change in power equation”

In response to the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 which was followed by the assassinations of the Hezbollah leader and Iran’s top military advisor to Lebanon in Beirut in a massive airstrike two months later, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at military and intelligence sites inside Israel on October 1. Since that date, Israel has been warning that it will retaliate.

Quoting anonymous sources, certain Western media outlets have said the Israelis may not hit Iran’s nuclear or oil sites, but just military or intelligence targets, which could be less escalatory.

On this assessment, Crocker says, “It is not going to meaningfully change any power equation. What I think it will do is push the debate inside Iran in the direction of nuclear weaponization sooner rather than later.”

Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 led to emergence of Hezbollah

On whether he is not concerned that the Israelis have become overconfident, Crocker said, “I worry that they’ve forgotten their own recent history. They hailed the operation “Peace for Galilee” as a great victory after the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization] withdrawal from Beirut. And of course what they got was Hezbollah…. So the idea that a ground invasion and subsequent occupation is somehow going to make Galilee safer is delusional.

He adds, “One thing I’ve learned over years, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, is that the concept of the defeat of an adversary only has meaning in the mind of that adversary. If that adversary feels defeated, he is defeated. If he doesn’t, he’s not. Will these decapitations make the adversary feel defeated? I guess time will tell but I would bet against it.”

Crocker says he was in Lebanon as U.S. ambassador when the Israelis assassinated Abbas Musawi, the secretary-general of Hezbollah in 1992 when Israeli helicopters fired missiles at his motorcade but that high-profile assassination didn’t exactly weaken Hezbollah.

On what he thinks the Israelis should do now, Crocker says, “Let us work on some cessation of hostilities. In the north you got UN Resolution 1701 on the table, as it’s been since 2006. And another UN resolution from 2004 similarly worded. Those are the reference points, the scripts for everyone involved. It might be that some hardscrabble U.S. diplomacy is needed so as to broker at least a cease-fire in the north. And in Gaza I think everything needs to be directed toward getting hostages back.

“That is something to work toward. This may be an interval in which Hezbollah and Iran for their own reasons may want a cease-fire. So if you can get that — enough of a cessation of hostilities to allow Israelis to return home — then you might be able to build toward some kind of implementation of 1701. That would also be the best way of dealing with Iran.”